Tuesday, November 24, 2009

Housing Bubble in Geneva

I've been claiming that there's in housing bubble in Geneva and that price will fall (here and here) and I've been trying to do an econometric study but I've not been able to get data, but look at this for the US, doesn't it look like a Geneva story?

Dastrup and Carson look at how the magnitudes of the price declines correlate with a number of other community characteristics such as overbuilding (as measured by growth in building permits relative to the local labor force), extent of subprime lending, owner-occupied units, and fundamentals such as median income. Dastrup and Carson find that all of these measures were statistically significantly related to the magnitude of the housing price decline. But by far the most important variable was the magnitude of the previous price run-up, which all by itself can account for more than half of the observed variance in the size of the price decline across different communities.

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1 comment:

Pierre-Louis said...

yes but isnt what causes the price run-up the important question? I would guess that what cause price increases in geneva is very different from the causes in the US? My uneducated guess would be that it is shortage that drive prices up in geneva, no?